Testing age progression technique: evaluation of reliability and accuracy

Age progression is increasingly applied in forensic practice to assist in the identification of long-term missing persons, yet its reliability requires systematic validation. This study analysed childhood and adult photographs of an Italian family to assess the accuracy of the technique. Eight images were examined: five portraying the parents and three children at age 2, and three depicting the parents and daughter at age 30. A morphological analysis of facial features (face shape, eyebrows, eyelid folds, nasal bridge and tip, lips) was performed to identify hereditary traits. Age progressions of the two sons were generated to age 30 and subsequently adjusted to their current ages (45 and 43 years). Reconstructions were created using Adobe® Photoshop, combining low-resolution parental photographs with high-resolution reference images. Results showed variable accuracy: the progression of Brother 2 closely resembled his current appearance, whereas discrepancies were noted for Brother 1, particularly in nasal morphology, largely due to poor source resolution. Overall, accuracy improved with higher image quality and a larger number of reference photographs. This validation demonstrates that age progression can approximate the real appearance of missing persons but emphasizes image quality as a critical limitation. Expanding datasets and refining morphological protocols are essential to increase its reliability in forensic casework.