We empirically explore the role of monetary and distribution shocks on semi-autonomous demand under a supermultiplier framework. We use quarterly data for the United States from 1968 to 2022 and apply a SVAR model to investigate the effect of changes in financial and distributive variables on autonomous expenditure. We find that: (i) the federal funds rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on autonomous expenditure; (ii) a positive shock in the wage share (WS) has a negative effect on non-revolving consumer credit (CC) and a transitory positive effect on induced consumption; (iii) a positive shock in aggregated autonomous demand has a positive, persistent, and significant effect on induced consumption and, output, as well as on the adjusted WS; (iv) a positive shock in private residential investment has a positive, persistent and statistically significant effect on other autonomous components of demand and output; (v) while residential investment positively influences CC and durable consumption, the inverse does not hold.

Monetary policy, income distribution and semi-autonomous demand in the US

Barbieri Goes Maria Cristina;
2025-01-01

Abstract

We empirically explore the role of monetary and distribution shocks on semi-autonomous demand under a supermultiplier framework. We use quarterly data for the United States from 1968 to 2022 and apply a SVAR model to investigate the effect of changes in financial and distributive variables on autonomous expenditure. We find that: (i) the federal funds rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on autonomous expenditure; (ii) a positive shock in the wage share (WS) has a negative effect on non-revolving consumer credit (CC) and a transitory positive effect on induced consumption; (iii) a positive shock in aggregated autonomous demand has a positive, persistent, and significant effect on induced consumption and, output, as well as on the adjusted WS; (iv) a positive shock in private residential investment has a positive, persistent and statistically significant effect on other autonomous components of demand and output; (v) while residential investment positively influences CC and durable consumption, the inverse does not hold.
2025
financial and distributional shocks
semi‐autonomous expenditure
supermultiplier
SVAR
US
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14085/19365
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